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Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Rookie Runningback Extraordinaire

    Well ladies and gentlemen, here comes your OROY, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I was skeptical of drafting him in the past weeks as I knew he'd be over drafted in many leagues just due to the fact that he is on KC. But now that Damien Williams has opted out, there is no better time to swoop up CEH in the late first early second. 

    One of the stats that actually transitions to the pros from college best for rookie runningback is TDs, and last year CEH scored a total of 17 TDs. Now, I don't think that he's going to score 17 TDs, but I do think that he will be very productive in this category. Plus, he is a PPR machine, catching 55 passes last year for 453 yards and 1 TD. This will only improve in the innovative Andy Reid offense. They didn't spend a first round pick on CEH just to have him do regular boring runningback things. CEH is a CMC type of player who can do literally anything you ask him to, and man, they are going to use him to death. 

    Like I said earlier, Damien Williams opted out of the season giving CEH the clear number one spot with not much competition behind him that would sniping be carries. He could possibly become a three-down runningback, really only going off the field when he needs a quick break, but neither Darwin Thompson or Darrel Williams will be taking snaps away from CEH.

    CEH has quickly rose into my top RB list, and although many of the round one RBs after about the fourth pick do not seem as safe and seem much riskier, CEH seems to be a safer pick. Teams do not spend first round picks on RBs just to have them no produce. They will force them onto the field and have them play in the ways that they desire. That's why I was so high on Josh Jacobs last year, it is way too high of an investment to just waste. Plus, if there is any staff that will figure out how to use a player to the best of their abilities it is the Chiefs. Trust in KC and trust me, if you're picking mid to late in the first or early in the second. Draft. Clyde. Edwards. Helaire. 

By: Trevor Junt

Initial Reaction: Patrick Mahomes and Half a Billion

  

  The NFL has their golden boy secured. The Chiefs have just signed Patrick Mahomes to a massive record-breaking contract, so large that it's something no sport has yet to see until now. The 24-year-old has started two seasons in his career so far and man does he have a resume! Patrick Mahomes is a two time AFC West Champion, a two time Pro-Bowler, has an NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, an NFL MVP award, a Super Bowl LIV Champion, and a Super Bowl MVP award. Not to mention he threw for 50 TD's in his first year starting in the league. Now to the details... Mahomes signed an extension worth 10 years and $503 million. This is not only a record breaking contract for the NFL but it his the highest paid contract in the history of sports. He receives a $10 million signing bonus and has $477 million in guarantee mechanisms, which means the Chiefs guarantee his contract a year before or they have to release him. The rest of the contract is in incentives, but I don't think he needs too stress to much about the "small amount" of  $25 million. He also has a no trade clause as a little cherry on top.

    Yesterday quarterbacks were having a good time being the highest paid players in their sport, today they have become kings (in the sense of $) of all sports. Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott are due for contracts soon and this did nothing but help them get more money. Be prepared for the QB market to heat up next offseason, several QB's are due for extensions and Patrick Mahomes has set the market. No one is going to get close to his half a billion, but now they will get paid higher than the record was, at $135 million. Other QB's are thanking Mahomes as much as they can. 

    Now about fantasy, what this initially means is that he is going to be drafted higher, he might be a second round pick in your draft and possibly a first rounder in some leagues. This is purely the big name effect, don't get caught up in this sickness. People want to draft Mahomes early just to guarantee that they have him on their team, because honestly it feels good to have Mahomes on your team, the big name and the great production feels great. You want to have the king of the league on your team, and do not rule out different drafting strategies, like picking a QB early (We'll discuss that in an upcoming podcast), but just don't get caught in the current of picking him in the first round. Also, this helps the entire KC offense: Kelce will be lethal as ever, Tyreek Hill will have great production, CEH is a rookie who is about to produce, and the young WR's on the team like Mecole Hardman will go up in value as well. Be ready to draft KC players higher than ever.

By: Trevor Junt

ZZZ... Take a Chance On These Sleepers (QB's and TE's)

QB's: Baker Mayfield and Teddy Bridgewater

Baker Mayfield: Baker Mayfield is my favorite quarterback steal of this draft, he was drafted number one overall in 2018 for a reason, he has some real talent. He is currently being drafted as the 14th QB which is around the 11th round. In the early teens or late single digits, I believe it's a good pick. He has great surrounding talent in OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, and Rashard Higgins. His offensive line just improved tremendously, adding Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin to hold down the tackle spots. Plus, his coaching has gone under massive improvements moving on from Freddie Kitchens to Kevin Stefanski. Mayfield will be going into his 3rd season at the age of 25. I expect the Browns to go under a lot of improvement this season and they will be led by Baker who is set to throw for about 4,000 yards 25 or more TD's and can probably lower his interception rate due to more time in the pocket and less scrambling and being rushed. I believe that Baker is set to take off this season, his team has now put him in the best position to have a good season. If you wait on a QB and end up in the 10th round with Mayfield available, I say pull the trigger. 

Teddy Bridgewater: Teddy Bridgewater is being so under-drafted that it's scary. He is being drafted as the consensus 25th QB. He is the full-time starter in Carolina and people seem to be glossing right over that fact. In the 5 games that he started in for New Orleans last season he threw for 1,205 yards, 9 TD's, 2 INT's, and had a QB rating around 100. His talent surrounding him in Carolina is great as well, he has CMC, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson. Carolina is about to have a terrible defense so to make up for that they are going to have to throw often, which gives Teddy more opportunities to get his numbers up and help your fantasy team, they also have the second easiest schedule of defenses. He isn't being drafted in most leagues, so you could probably pick him up on waivers or free agency after your draft. But if you're a player who likes to have a second quarterback or you waited so long that you have a risky piece, take a chance on Teddy. He is about to have a solid year and his dump-offs are about to be even better with the assistance of CMC. 

TE's: Rob Gronkowski and Hayden Hurst

(Let me start this off by saying, if you don't draft the top 3 TE's being Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and then a tier below Mark Andrews, then most of the TE's will end up having the same numbers or close to the same. When looking at sleeper TE's I'm looking at where they're being drafted and if they have a good chance of ending up higher.)

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk is back baby. I don't think I have to explain about the possible explosion coming in the Bucs Offense but man oh man they're gonna be something special. Plus, with the short offseason and not much time to practice with his new teammates you have to believe that Tom Brady is about to find his good buddy Gronk more often than normal. Gronk has never needed that many receptions to be effective as his career high is just 90. Expect Gronk to fall in the range of 50-70 receptions and 6-10 TD's. I'm guessing he'll fall into the top-10 range probably ahead of Jared Cook, Hunter Henry, and Tyler Higbee. He is currently being drafted as the 10th TE, around the 9th round. Gronk will be a top TE this season. If he's there in the 9th or 10th round, draft him. But don't be distracted by the big name, make sure you don't draft him way early just because of the big name. If he's gone by then, move on and draft the next best guy TE's points aren't that different when you get into this section of them.

Hayden Hurst: Hayden Hurst is probably the Mark Andrews of this year's draft, which is funny as he was Mark Andrews back-up last year. Hurst is a player full of talent, he runs a 4.67 which is fast for a TE. The Falcons saw some promise in him, they traded a second-round pick to get their hands on him. Another addition to the argument of drafting Hurst is that usually a large amount of targets really makes a successful TE, and man the Falcons love to use a TE, we can see in the use of Austin Hooper last year, and they are one of the highest percentage passing offenses in the league. Even though Hurst's numbers last year of 30 receptions, 349 yards, and 2 TD's is pretty low his target rate is about to increase ten-fold. TE's are a position you want to wait on as the points are so similar after the top 3. I'm trying to get all stocks of Hayden Hurst in every one of my leagues and I suggest you do too. He's about to have a great year with Matt Ryan and is finally full-time starter. 

 

By: Trevor Junt

ZZZ... Take a Chance On These Sleepers (WR's and RB's)

RB's: Josh Jacobs and James Conner

Josh Jacobs: Josh Jacobs is a late first rounder or early second rounder type talent, yes this might seem high for being a sleeper but I cannot emphasize how great of a pick he is. Jacobs played in just 13 games last year and still ended up 8th in rushing yards with 1,150. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 7 TDs. The 22 year old will not have a sophomore slump, on the contrary he is about to have a great season. If Jacobs stays healthy he could become a top 5 fantasy player. Jon Gruden is quoted on saying that he wants to feed Jacobs the ball more and wants to get him more targets, Jacobs has shown flashes of being a great receiving back at Alabama and his talent could boost the Raiders offense to a point they are yet to reach. Josh Jacobs caught 27 targets last season, but I believe this season he will become a full-time third down workhorse back. If you're drafting in the bottom of round one or early second, draft Josh Jacobs.

James Conner: James Conner is ranked as the 33rd best RB and is being drafted much later than he should be. Injuries held Conner down most of the 2019 season and the lack of a healthy Big Ben also did a toll on the whole offense. People are quick to forget the amazing season Conner had in 2018 with Le'Veon Bell sitting out, he had 1,470 scrimmage yards and 13 total TDs. Conner is in prime position to have a comeback party in 2020, the offensive line hasn't really changed and now he has a solid QB running his offense. This is remove stacked boxes against Conner and will gain him more goal line carries. He will probably be in double digit TDs in 2020. So if you have a possibility to draft a 25 year old James Conner in the mid-rounds, I say take that chance. 

WR's: Tyler Lockett and Deebo Samuel 

Tyler Lockett: I can't even believe that I have to talk about Tyler Lockett, he is the most underappreciated WR in the NFL. Before his midseason injury against the 49ers he was the most consistent Fantasy Football WR averaging over 10 points every week. He then suffered a leg injury in week 8 and his production went down, but he still finished with career highs in WR categories with 82 receptions, 1,057 yards, and 8 TDs. Lockett finished as the 13th best WR even with half a lower body. With his QB being Russell Wilson, his numbers won't go down but will probably go up. Draft Lockett as a high tier WR2. He is way too talented to skip on in the mid-rounds. 

Deebo Samuel: Deebo Samuel was ranked as the 31st best WR in Fantasy Football last year. This year he is going to be very productive in Kyle Shanahan's offense. He did this without starting until about midway into the season. In weeks 10-17 he played in over 80% of the teams snaps and that's when he blew up. He ranked as the number 9 WR in Fantasy in that 7 week stretch. The 49ers are not going to sit on him this year, expect a full-fledged starting role on this team who just lost Emmanuel Sanders. Samuel is a swiss army knife, able to catch, get YAC, run, and score TDs. He finished with 802 yards receiving, 159 rush yards, and 6 total TDs. Plus, because of Kittle, Samuel is Jimmy G's number 2 option, which is a great position to be in for that offense, expect the versatile Samuel to get a ton of extra work in 2020. Deebo is a must have for me, he'll finish as a good WR2. Don't miss out on Deebo.

By: Trevor Junt

Social Distancing: 5 Names To Stay 6 Feet Away From This Fall

1. Aaron Jones

In 2019 Aaron Jones was RB 2 in PPR leagues with 314.8 points. But man, in 2020 this is one of the biggest names to stay away from. Almost all the time RB TD stats don't carry over from year-to-year, and Aaron Jones finished with 19 TDs overall in 2020. This means his ADP will go way up from last year and he is a total bust candidate. Especially with the addition of the 62^nd pick in AJ Dillion who is a pure power back and will take away multiple touchdowns from Jones this upcoming season. Stay away from Aaron Jones.

2. Julian Edelman

There are a few obvious reasons to stay away from Julian Edelman this upcoming season, let’s speak about the few glaring ones. First, his homeboy aka the GOAT aka Tom Brady has taken his talents to the south beach. Jarett Stidham does not look like a future star in the league and this will diminish Edelman’s production. Finally, Edelman is the only consistently viable star on the Patriots so unless N’keal Harry steps up it will be double team galore for Edelman. 

3. Mark Ingram 

The 2019 Pro-Bowler Mark Ingram will turn 31 this upcoming season, which means in running back years he will be turning around 60 years old. The Ravens knew this and pulled the trigger on the extremely versatile RB out of Ohio State, J.K. Dobbins. I believe that Dobbins will take about half the load of the carries away from Ingram and many of the receptions so if you’re going to draft one of these guys, draft the other. It’s less of a handicap situation and more of a hot hand type.

4. Joe Burrow

I shouldn’t have to be saying this, but if you’re interested in drafting Joe Exotic anywhere near the 6^th or 7^th round stop yourself and get checked out. It sounds terrible because it is basically opposite from real life but Quarterbacks are one of the least valuable positions in fantasy football. Even worse, rookie QB’s do not do well in fantasy football. The record for most TD’s in a season by a rookie QB is 27 by Baker Mayfield. This is not that good of fantasy production. Look for solid QB that puts up enough numbers to be above average, there is always great value in the back of drafts. Grab Josh Allen late, Kyler Murray mid-to-late, or even Ryan Tannehill way later. Just wait on a QB, it’s what’s best for your roster. 

5. Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler finished as the RB 4 in PPR leagues this last season. But as for 2020 I’d stay away from him as high as he is going to be drafted. He was a great value pick last season but this year he is not worth a second-round pick. Simply because the dump-off machine, Philip Rivers, has moved on to his retirement home in Indianapolis. We don’t even know the definitive QB in LA and we don’t know the kind of production they give to RB’s. So expect Ekeler’s targets to go down along with his production. He is just too risky to draft him where he is. Wait a few more rounds and draft Miles Sanders around round 5, he is poised to break-out and will have a similar role as Ekeler. It’s safer and is a better value pick.

By: Trevor Junt 

Top 10 Fantasy Tips for Beginners

      1. More than just Drafting

No matter how much preparation you do for your draft, throughout the season just sticking to your draft picks is not enough. Make sure you make moves through waivers, free agency, and trades. This is what will really lead you to the championship.

2. Take QB’s Later

Quarterbacks are taken way to high in normal fantasy leagues. Don’t be the guy who fires on Patrick Mahomes in the second or third round. You can always find great value in picks in the middle or late rounds. For example, in 2019 Lamar Jackson was taken in average in the 10^th-12^th round and he was a record-breaking MVP. Wait on quarterbacks.

3. Prioritize RB’s

Draft RB’s early, the top 25 RB’s will be gone in the draft extremely quick. You don’t want to focus on other positions and end up with a bunch of RB3’s.

4. Focus on Need

Pick your team based on need, just because RB’s are the most important position in fantasy football doesn’t mean you should stack your team with 15 of them. Pick based on the position you need. It’s never fun being stuck with the worst at a position. Be eager to jump on good players.

 5. Fame isn’t Everything

Don’t pick based on name only. Many people make the mistake of drafting players because they’re more famous than another. OBJ is not a good value in the second round. Le’Veon Bell is not a second-round pick. Pick based on last years production and this year’s projection. Do your research and find more valuable but maybe less famous players.

6. ZZZ…

Spend late round picks on fliers. Which means, look for sleepers in the last few rounds! Players that most don’t expect to do well, but you may have a hunch that they’re going to have a great season. This can make or break a draft. 

7. Know the ADP of Players

ADP stands for Average Draft Position. You want to make sure that you are picking players at the right place. You don’t want to end up picking an eighth-round pick in the fourth round. Know the players well and know when to pick them.

8. Defense and Kickers

Defense and kickers should be your last two picks. Period.

9. Practice. Practice. Practice.

If you want to do well in your drafts make sure you practice by doing mock drafts. Do them all the time, especially when we get close to draft season. Do them whenever you have down time. Practice won’t make perfect, but it can sure make a dang good draft.

10. Branch Out a Bit

Don’t pick players from one team or just from your favorite team. Although it may be tempting to focus on your favorite team it will do your fantasy team no good. If your team has a bad week your fantasy team has a bad week too. So, if you must pick players from a certain team keep the maximum of three per team. 

11. Bonus!

Listen to podcasts, read articles and do your research. Our podcast will be coming out soon, there are also some other good fantasy football podcasts on of my favorites being “The Fantasy Footballers”. If you focus on research given to you by us and others it will give you the best chance to win your championship. 

By: Trevor Junt