Wednesday, June 17, 2020

ZZZ... Take a Chance On These Sleepers (QB's and TE's)

QB's: Baker Mayfield and Teddy Bridgewater


Baker Mayfield: Baker Mayfield is my favorite quarterback steal of this draft, he was drafted number one overall in 2018 for a reason, he has some real talent. He is currently being drafted as the 14th QB which is around the 11th round. In the early teens or late single digits, I believe it's a good pick. He has great surrounding talent in OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, and Rashard Higgins. His offensive line just improved tremendously, adding Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin to hold down the tackle spots. Plus, his coaching has gone under massive improvements moving on from Freddie Kitchens to Kevin Stefanski. Mayfield will be going into his 3rd season at the age of 25. I expect the Browns to go under a lot of improvement this season and they will be led by Baker who is set to throw for about 4,000 yards 25 or more TD's and can probably lower his interception rate due to more time in the pocket and less scrambling and being rushed. I believe that Baker is set to take off this season, his team has now put him in the best position to have a good season. If you wait on a QB and end up in the 10th round with Mayfield available, I say pull the trigger. 

Teddy Bridgewater: Teddy Bridgewater is being so under-drafted that it's scary. He is being drafted as the consensus 25th QB. He is the full-time starter in Carolina and people seem to be glossing right over that fact. In the 5 games that he started in for New Orleans last season he threw for 1,205 yards, 9 TD's, 2 INT's, and had a QB rating around 100. His talent surrounding him in Carolina is great as well, he has CMC, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson. Carolina is about to have a terrible defense so to make up for that they are going to have to throw often, which gives Teddy more opportunities to get his numbers up and help your fantasy team, they also have the second easiest schedule of defenses. He isn't being drafted in most leagues, so you could probably pick him up on waivers or free agency after your draft. But if you're a player who likes to have a second quarterback or you waited so long that you have a risky piece, take a chance on Teddy. He is about to have a solid year and his dump-offs are about to be even better with the assistance of CMC. 


TE's: Rob Gronkowski and Hayden Hurst

(Let me start this off by saying, if you don't draft the top 3 TE's being Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and then a tier below Mark Andrews, then most of the TE's will end up having the same numbers or close to the same. When looking at sleeper TE's I'm looking at where they're being drafted and if they have a good chance of ending up higher.)

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk is back baby. I don't think I have to explain about the possible explosion coming in the Bucs Offense but man oh man they're gonna be something special. Plus, with the short offseason and not much time to practice with his new teammates you have to believe that Tom Brady is about to find his good buddy Gronk more often than normal. Gronk has never needed that many receptions to be effective as his career high is just 90. Expect Gronk to fall in the range of 50-70 receptions and 6-10 TD's. I'm guessing he'll fall into the top-10 range probably ahead of Jared Cook, Hunter Henry, and Tyler Higbee. He is currently being drafted as the 10th TE, around the 9th round. Gronk will be a top TE this season. If he's there in the 9th or 10th round, draft him. But don't be distracted by the big name, make sure you don't draft him way early just because of the big name. If he's gone by then, move on and draft the next best guy TE's points aren't that different when you get into this section of them.

Hayden Hurst: Hayden Hurst is probably the Mark Andrews of this year's draft, which is funny as he was Mark Andrews back-up last year. Hurst is a player full of talent, he runs a 4.67 which is fast for a TE. The Falcons saw some promise in him, they traded a second-round pick to get their hands on him. Another addition to the argument of drafting Hurst is that usually a large amount of targets really makes a successful TE, and man the Falcons love to use a TE, we can see in the use of Austin Hooper last year, and they are one of the highest percentage passing offenses in the league. Even though Hurst's numbers last year of 30 receptions, 349 yards, and 2 TD's is pretty low his target rate is about to increase ten-fold. TE's are a position you want to wait on as the points are so similar after the top 3. I'm trying to get all stocks of Hayden Hurst in every one of my leagues and I suggest you do too. He's about to have a great year with Matt Ryan and is finally full-time starter. 

 

By: Trevor Junt

Saturday, June 6, 2020

ZZZ... Take a Chance On These Sleepers (WR's and RB's)

RB's: Josh Jacobs and James Conner

Josh Jacobs: Josh Jacobs is a late first rounder or early second rounder type talent, yes this might seem high for being a sleeper but I cannot emphasize how great of a pick he is. Jacobs played in just 13 games last year and still ended up 8th in rushing yards with 1,150. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 7 TDs. The 22 year old will not have a sophomore slump, on the contrary he is about to have a great season. If Jacobs stays healthy he could become a top 5 fantasy player. Jon Gruden is quoted on saying that he wants to feed Jacobs the ball more and wants to get him more targets, Jacobs has shown flashes of being a great receiving back at Alabama and his talent could boost the Raiders offense to a point they are yet to reach. Josh Jacobs caught 27 targets last season, but I believe this season he will become a full-time third down workhorse back. If you're drafting in the bottom of round one or early second, draft Josh Jacobs.

James Conner: James Conner is ranked as the 33rd best RB and is being drafted much later than he should be. Injuries held Conner down most of the 2019 season and the lack of a healthy Big Ben also did a toll on the whole offense. People are quick to forget the amazing season Conner had in 2018 with Le'Veon Bell sitting out, he had 1,470 scrimmage yards and 13 total TDs. Conner is in prime position to have a comeback party in 2020, the offensive line hasn't really changed and now he has a solid QB running his offense. This is remove stacked boxes against Conner and will gain him more goal line carries. He will probably be in double digit TDs in 2020. So if you have a possibility to draft a 25 year old James Conner in the mid-rounds, I say take that chance. 

WR's: Tyler Lockett and Deebo Samuel 

Tyler Lockett: I can't even believe that I have to talk about Tyler Lockett, he is the most underappreciated WR in the NFL. Before his midseason injury against the 49ers he was the most consistent Fantasy Football WR averaging over 10 points every week. He then suffered a leg injury in week 8 and his production went down, but he still finished with career highs in WR categories with 82 receptions, 1,057 yards, and 8 TDs. Lockett finished as the 13th best WR even with half a lower body. With his QB being Russell Wilson, his numbers won't go down but will probably go up. Draft Lockett as a high tier WR2. He is way too talented to skip on in the mid-rounds. 

Deebo Samuel: Deebo Samuel was ranked as the 31st best WR in Fantasy Football last year. This year he is going to be very productive in Kyle Shanahan's offense. He did this without starting until about midway into the season. In weeks 10-17 he played in over 80% of the teams snaps and that's when he blew up. He ranked as the number 9 WR in Fantasy in that 7 week stretch. The 49ers are not going to sit on him this year, expect a full-fledged starting role on this team who just lost Emmanuel Sanders. Samuel is a swiss army knife, able to catch, get YAC, run, and score TDs. He finished with 802 yards receiving, 159 rush yards, and 6 total TDs. Plus, because of Kittle, Samuel is Jimmy G's number 2 option, which is a great position to be in for that offense, expect the versatile Samuel to get a ton of extra work in 2020. Deebo is a must have for me, he'll finish as a good WR2. Don't miss out on Deebo.

By: Trevor Junt

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